Pinned Index, Extreme Skew, and March OpEx (EP. 23)

Joe and Smiddy return after a brief break to break down the strange market environment traders have been navigating. While the major indices have gone nowhere for months, individual stocks have been moving aggressively beneath the surface, creating one of the highest dispersion environments since the financial crisis.

They discuss how dealer gamma positioning, Vanna effects, and the upcoming March OPEX are helping keep the market pinned despite rising volatility and chaotic headlines. The conversation also dives into skew reaching extreme levels, why some strategists see a potential bullish risk reversal setting up, and how traders are navigating expensive hedges in a market filled with geopolitical uncertainty.

Finally, they explore the macro forces in the background — from oil shocks tied to Iran tensions to the global safe haven scramble across Treasuries, gold, and even Bitcoin — and what it could mean for volatility and market structure in the weeks ahead.

 

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